The New York Times
Earthquakes in California: Recent Activity and Forecast
Recent Earthquakes in California and Nevada
On May 1, 2024, at 2:01 PM PT, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake was reported two miles from Corona, California, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This earthquake follows a recent series of earthquakes in the region, including a magnitude 4.2 earthquake that struck Southern California on January 5, 2024.
How do earthquakes get on these maps?
The USGS monitors earthquakes worldwide using a network of seismic stations. When an earthquake occurs, seismic waves travel through the ground and are detected by these stations. The USGS uses this data to determine the location, magnitude, and depth of the earthquake.
Forecasting Earthquakes in California
A new California earthquake forecast by the USGS, the California Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, and partners revises scientific estimates for the chances of a damaging earthquake in the next 30 years.
The forecast, released in January 2024, updates the previous forecast from 2015. The new forecast takes into account new data and modeling techniques and provides a more detailed picture of the seismic hazards facing California.
Key Findings of the New Forecast
The new forecast indicates that the chances of a damaging earthquake in California in the next 30 years are:
- 72% for Los Angeles
- 67% for San Francisco
- 31% for San Diego
- 21% for Sacramento
These probabilities are higher than those estimated in the 2015 forecast, but they are still within the range of previous forecasts.
The new forecast also provides more detailed information about the types of earthquakes that are likely to occur and the areas that are most at risk.
Los Angeles Times
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